On April 17, 1793, three French soldiers broke into the tomb of Michel de Nostredame, a man we know as Nostradamus.
Legend has it that one man, a Corporal Adelaide, picked up the skull in an attempt to gain the power of the long-dead seer.
His fellow soldiers bore witness that his eyes opened wide as he gained full knowledge and then was immediately struck down and killed by an errant bullet, fired from the nearby riots.
A plaque around the neck of the corpse read 1793.
It is by channeling the ghost of Nostradamus — as if drinking blood from the very skull itself — that I give you my bold predictions for 2025:
The Three demons of inflation will go back into the portal to the netherworld.
- Labor Prices Will Ease
Unemployment will go up. Middle management and high paid IT workers will have a difficult time finding a new job.
The money people will earn by sitting in front of a computer will drop compared to wages earned in the real world. As the PC destroyed the typing pools, so AI will destroy about two million jobs in 2025. This is will be good for stocks as costs will go down and margins will increase.
- Rental Prices will Ease
House prices will ease especially in apartment rentals as apartments are becoming overbuilt.
In boomtowns in the South and West overbuilding of apartments means that renters will have a good year.
- Oil Prices Will Drop.
Oil prices will also ease as the global economy sputters. Natural gas prices will go up due to huge demand for more electricity in the US and Europe.
IEA expects a global oil surplus of over one million barrels a day if OPEC keeps cuts in place.
These three items: housing, labor and oil will keep the lid on inflation in 2025.
- Stock Market Valuations Will Drop
Stock market valuations are sky high. In terms of market cap to the rest of the world(or market cap to GDP) they have never been higher. Earnings estimates have baked in plenty of growth. If you look at the numbers of low unemployment, falling interest rates, strong consumers and a business-friendly new administration, you cannot get any better.
What can’t go on, won’t go on. That doesn’t mean there will be a crash. Sometimes the market goes sideways until growth catches up.
Growth baked in courtesy of Barchart:
- Healthcare will be a winning sector
The healthcare sector will be a surprise winner in 2025 despite JFK Jr.’s revenge. The sector has been absolutely monkey hammered. Any positive news will see a reversal.
- Pickleball is done. Stick a fork in it.
And lastly, the scourge of our time, pickleball, has finally worn out its welcome.
Pickleball is over. It died faster than Racquetball in the 80s. How is this for a headline from the Business Observer:“Pickleball club chain, including debut Lakewood Ranch location, shutters
Founded in 2019, the club says it doesn’t “have sufficient financial resources to continue operations.”
A Sarasota company that at as recently as 2022 said it planned to invest $180 million into opening 15 high-end pickleball centers across Florida has closed.”
Suck it pickleball…
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer
Outsider Club
It’s Gone:
https://www.businessobserverfl.com/news/2024/dec/17/pickleball-club-lakewood-ranch-shutters/
Brit’s Bold Statements 2024:
https://www.outsiderclub.com/2024-in-review/
Losers: https://www.outsiderclub.com/ai-losers/
