For as long as I’ve been investing there has always been this idea that you should chase the Boomer generation. And as they’ve aged you could see the money flow from when they were new parents, to house buying, to retirement and healthcare.
Along this trek through life, the theory goes that when they retire, Boomers would buy boats, RVs and take cruises.
Today Winnebago (WGO) the brand of brands in RVs hit a bump in the road. Earnings missed expectations, management cited falling consumer demand and hesitant dealers.
The company posted a per-share loss of -$0.18, while the street was expecting a profit of $0.04. Revenue dropped -18% year-over-year to $625.6 million and the CEO said the market for its vehicles “remained challenging.”
I’m sure much of the reason has to do with interest rates. But there is more going on here. RV makers were taken over by the bean counters and in an effort to reduce costs, have produced expensive crap for years now.
The Covid RV boom accelerated this phenomenon while making the adventure of RVing more costly and a greater hassle. Couple that with people deciding the RV life wasn’t for them and dumping their rolling condos on the used lots. The stock is down 2% today and 30% for the year.
Welltower Inc. (WELL)
Another Boomer stock is Welltower. The company is a real estate investment trust (“REIT”) that builds, owns and operates senior living. As you know these senior living communities are popping up all over the place to fill the huge demand from Boomers. And the company is killing it. The company has invested $6.1 billion in new properties and saw its quarterly earings grow 252% year over year.
It is so good Nancy Pelosi bought some. The downside is that it is expensive with a forward PE of 67. The chart also shows a downtrend.
I suspect this one will move sideways as it consolidates after a great year.
Relax, Take a Cruise
Lastly, we have the cruise ships Like Carnival Corp. (CCL). The shares are up almost 5% today. The company beat earnings again and said that record demand is driving “further out sailings” in 2026.
CCL has hit records with all-time highs for both price and occupancy. Q4 revenue was also a new record. Chief Executive Josh Weinstein said, “This has been an incredibly strong finish to a record year.”
“Booking volumes taken during the fourth quarter for 2026 continued to break records, reflecting sustained demand even for further out sailings,” the company said.
For the quarter to Nov. 30, the company posted a net income of $303 million, or 23 cents a share, from a loss of $48 million, or 4 cents a share, in the same period a year ago.
Revenue climbed 10% to $5.94 billion, in line with expectations, as passenger ticket revenue rose 9.8% to $3.85 billion and onboard and other revenue grew 10.5% to $2.08 billion.
RCL has a forward PE ratio of 15.82. CCL has a forward PE of 14.81.
Full disclosure: I own both Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL).
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer
Outsider Club
2025 Predictions from Brit:
https://www.outsiderclub.com/brits-2025-market-predictions/
What I think I think:
https://www.outsiderclub.com/the-ghost-of-nostradamus-2025-predictions/
What Losers:
