It is a banner day in the markets.
On October 1, 2024:
- A dockworker’s strike not seen in 50 years could cripple the economy.
- Katrina-level devastation in several southern U.S. states.
- Hundreds of missile launches from Iran into Tel Aviv.
Workers Strike
The longshoreman union demands a 50% wage increase and the guarantee that the ports won’t be automated. They went on strike this morning. This will stop all imports and exports from the East Coast of the United States. Pundits report that it will cost the U.S. economy $5 billion a day.
These people should be fired for impeding technology that would streamline trade. Many Asian ports are run with fully automated cranes and trucks using 5G technology. This speeds up the process and increases safety. But then less stuff falls of the back of trucks.
Hurricane
Hurricane Helene has devastated the swath of North America from Florida to the southern half of the Appalachian Mountains, destroying towns, washing out roads, and leaving thousands of people stranded. The death count is at 130 and climbing. It’s a real tragedy and our hearts go out to the survivors.
This type of destruction not only impacts the regional economy, but it will cause problems with the high-tech global market. What you may not know is that the town of Spruce Pine is home to two mines that are a rare source of high-purity quartz. This crucial material is used to make silicon wafers, a key component in semiconductors manufactured the world over.
Spruce pine is the worlds largest producer with the highest purity. A six-month closure could stop chip production.
Missile Strike
The price of crude jumped today due to an escalation of war in the Middle East. WTI is up 3.8% as I write this.
Last night Israel sent ground forces into Lebanon to root out Hezbollah. This afternoon, Iran stated that they would launch missiles at Israel in retaliation, and they did. Videos on social media show that these attacks have made it through Israel’s Iron Dome defense system and are blowing up in Tel Aviv.
It looks like there will be casualties and Israel will respond. We will see how far Mossad has infiltrated the Iranian leadership. Netanyahu went on TV and said that the Iranian people will be free sooner rather than later.
Yesterday, Israel attacked oil storage facilities in Yemen as well as all of their power plants. The same could happen to Iran. ExxonMobile hit $120 on the news. Gold is at $2,680 an ounce. Silver is trading at $31.62. All the major indexes are down.
Greed
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is pushing maximum greed. The index uses 7 metrics to determine market sentiment. It is a contrary indicator. When it hits extremes you should invest in the other direction.
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer
Outsider Club
You Might Also Ejoy:
Brit’s great piece on market liquidity:
https://www.outsiderclub.com/dont-fight-the-fed/
China automated port:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5kO_BnXAwc
Fear and Greed Index:
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
