Trump Dropped New Sanctions This Week. According to gCaptain.com:
“The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has unveiled new sanctions targeting an international network facilitating the shipment of Iranian crude oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars to China.
At the center of the scheme is the sanctioned vessel SIRI (formerly ANTHEA), currently operating off Singapore’s coast carrying millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil. The vessel, under the command of Iranian national Arash Lavian, has been actively concealing its identity by operating under the name NEW PRIME and falsifying shipping documents.”
The network extends beyond single-vessel operations. In December 2024, nearly two million barrels of Iranian heavy crude oil, valued at over $100 million, were shipped aboard the Cameroon-flagged OXIS. Additionally, the Panama-flagged GIOIOSA transported over 700,000 barrels of Iranian oil to China.”
The new sanctions target multiple entities across China, India, and the UAE.
The point of this is to shut down the dark fleet of international oil tankers.
Oil is a fungible product and there is no way to give it a serial number to distinguish it from other oil.
Iran and Russia ship their oil in hidden fleets to refineries in India and the UAE. Often times they will transfer oil at sea.
These are all old tankers that would have gone to the scrap yard years ago. They may or may not have insurance. If there is an oil spill there will be no one to pay for the cleanup.
Furthermore, Denmark is cracking down on Russian tankers. The Danish Maritime Authority will carry out port state controls on tankers it deems high-risk who anchor off Skagen in the far north of the country.
The Danes will be looking at paperwork and safety systems. Russia sends about a third of its oil through the Danish straits. S&P Global Market Intelligence says that about one-third of the 175 ships moving Russian oil don’t have insurance and are 21 years old on average.
Investment Thesis
There is an investment community that thinks that once these dark fleet ships are shutdown then the price to move oil around the world will go up and the legitimate fleet will benefit.
Tanker stocks have been hit hard over the past few months due to threats of tariffs. The average P/E ratio is now an estimated 6.4 for 2025. And the average dividend yield is 11%
I own a company called TORM PLC (TORM). It has a P/E of 2.9 and a dividend yield of 28%. It’s market cap is around $2 billion.
There is another tanker company called Frontline (FRO), which is a blue chip if tanker stocks can have blue chips. It has a $4 billion market cap, a P/E of 8.4 for 2025, and a dividend yield of 11%.
Now, tanker stocks generally have a lot of debt and are interest rate-sensitive. They also get hit hard when too many ships show up to compete for the same route. Other risks could include a Russian deal peace and renewed Russian oil via pipelines to the EU.
All of that said, if you can handle the volatility of a speculative stock it looks like a good time to buy some Frontline (FRO) at $17.81 with the idea of selling it for around $24.50. If something does happen with the dark fleet, sell on the news.
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer
Outsider Club
Aliens:
https://www.outsiderclub.com/finally-a-ufo-etf/
Buy Gold:
https://www.outsiderclub.com/gold-hit-an-all-time-high-you-buying/
Brit Doubles Your Money:
https://www.outsiderclub.com/sorry-i-said-youd-double-your-money-in-2025-not-in-just-two-months/
