You can’t trust the media to give you an honest assessment of the coming presidential election. They’re too busy whipping voters into a frenzy about Trump vs. Biden. Voter polls are equally unreliable.
So I’m here to tell you how to know who’s going to win the 2024 election because this election has something no other American election has ever had.
For the first time in American history, the coming election has a perfect stock market corollary: one of the candidates is a majority owner of a publicly traded company. Donald Trump owns 57% of the shares of his social media company’s stock, Trump Media & Technology Group (NYSE: DJT).
You should know I’m an investor, I don’t really play politics. I believe Capitalism and American exceptionalism have their own momentum. And I decided a long time ago that I’d rather hitch my wagon to Corporate America’s ability to grow revenue, profits, and share price than write speeches for a particular candidate. Making money has a pretty much endless life cycle, politicians come and go.
It’s been said that investors bet with their dollars. When a company makes a mistake or a bad decision, investors sell and the stock price falls. Good decisions get rewarded with buying and a higher share price.
I expect that the same dynamic will play out with Trump Media & Technology Group. As we get closer to November 4, investors will vote with their dollars. They’ll send DJT share price higher or lower.
A Perfect Proxy
Now, as a company, DJT is kind of a disaster. It took in $4 million in revenue in 2023 and lost $58 million. Based on those numbers, there’s no way this company should be valued at $5.8 billion dollars. As the financial media keeps saying, investors are paying 1,000 times revenue to own a piece of Trump Media & Technology.
No business person in his right mind does that. Paying $1,000 for $1 in revenue is absurd. There’s no business plan in existence that can turn that $1 in revenue into even $100 in revenue in a reasonable time frame.
But that’s exactly why the share price of Trump Media & Technology Group is the perfect proxy for Trump’s chance of winning.
DJT stock has nothing to do with business fundamentals. It has everything to do with Donald Trump’s run for the presidency. It is Trump that gives the stock value. The price of the stock will tell us if he will win or not.
The Financial Media has it Wrong
Every single piece of commentary I’ve read from the financial media is giddy with the absurdity of it all. All they can see is the $4 million in revenue and the $58 million dollar loss.
Every single writer points out that DJT stock is such an obvious, slam dunk, no-brainer bet that it will go down in price, that it costs 500% of the share price to take a short position and hold it for a year.
However, the financial media is looking at Trump Media & Technology Group’s share price all wrong. It’s psychological, not fiscal.
Trump supporters will vote at their polling place in November. In the meantime, they will also vote with shares of Trump Media & Technology Group. Keep an eye on the DJT share price. It will rise and fall based on his odds of winning the 2024 election. Buy or sell at the right time, and you could make a lot of money.
Briton Ryle
Chief Investment Strategist
Outsider Club
X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/BritonRyle
