“Hammer, you sound like a broken record. Just another perma-bear preaching doom!” – Bigbongbob6969!! probably.
I’ve been bearish for a few months now writing articles about overvalued equities, inverted yield curves, consumer debt, government debt, slowdowns in trucking, and companies like Dollar General spouting omens of earnings doom.
But it’s not because I want the market to go down, it’s because there are more red flags in this market than in China’s cultural revolution. Likely, we are already in an economic recession and the stock market is forming a blowoff top.
The art of making money in markets is to have money available to buy when prices get cheap.
You don’t have to look far for examples of my doomcasting. In July I called a top in Florida housing prices, last month I said that Private Equity was a time bomb, and just last week I predicted pain for the S&P 500 and U.S. equity index ETFs – all the while telling readers to buy silver and gold in that order (Silver is up 32% this year, outperforming gold, which is up 28%).
Perma-Bear R’ Us
Many readers are saying that I’m a perma-bear, one of those hacks that are always yacking about the national debt, Jekyll Island, and fiat currency. That’s just not the case. I am here to make you money in every market.
I was incredibly bullish back on June 21, 2021, when I wrote:
“After every recession comes a boom… The recovery is coming fast. Let’s face it — America is back in full force, and the numbers back it up. Now is not the time to buy value. It’s time to buy growth…
And right now we are due for a massive post-COVID-19 recovery…
COVID cases are down, lockdowns are over, millions are vaccinated, businesses are open, and the economic engine is revving up. Simply put, the American economy is about to lift off and enter a new era of prosperity and supercharged economic growth.
We’re about to experience the most spectacular recovery in history, a boom of unprecedented proportions…”
And that’s exactly what happened. The S&P 500 recorded two 20% plus years in a row.
Over the years I’ve made a number of great calls and my readers made a lot of money.
- In 2011 I said to buy beach rental properties when they were practically giving them away.
- In 2016 I recommended readers buy Bitcoin at $459.
- In 2022 I told readers to buy semiconductors, specifically ASML below $400.
But times change. Markets go from being hated and undervalued to loved and overvalued. As The Byrds told us: “To everything, there is a season.” And this is the season to increase your grubstake.
ASML was a great buy at $368. After all, they are the only company in the world that makes the EUV Lithograph systems that make semiconductor manufacturing possible. But the stock ran up to $1,110 a share.
Today, the ASML dropped 17%. The company accidentally posted earnings a day early on their website and the forecast for next year were lowered to the bottom half of the range. Needless to say the market didn’t like its forecast and immediately rerated the stock.
That’s what happens when equities are priced to perfection and don’t get it.
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer
Outsiderclub.com
Top in FL: https://www.outsiderclub.com/regional-real-estate-crash/
Pain in the Markets: https://www.outsiderclub.com/my-prediction-pain/
Stealth Unemployment: https://www.outsiderclub.com/but-baby-i-cant-find-no-job/
