You always know its a recession when “We Buy Gold” places start to pop-up in raggedy strip malls on the edge of town.
I haven’t seen that yet this cycle, but Ezcorp, a public company that owns strip malls, is doing well. They have a forward PE of 11, trade less than book and are growing earnings about 9% a year.
Here is the two-year chart:
The Nasdaq is down about 15% since February. The U.S. dollar has given up 3.1% in March and the Russell 2000 has given up more than 400 points.
But not gold. Gold continues to hit all-time highs. Today, it is trading at $3,153 an ounce. When times get tough, people turn to gold.
When a country goes belly-up, most people see panic — empty banks, burning streets, desperate faces.
Back in 2001, Argentina handed us a masterclass in managing chaos. I knew a guy who lived through those very hard times. He survived because he put his money into cheap gold rings.
Here’s how it went down—and why it’s a playbook for the next meltdown…
By late 2001, Argentina was a financial dumpster fire. The peso, shackled to the dollar, snapped under pressure. As the peso fell in value, the number of dollars it could be exchanged for also fell…
Banks locked accounts — the infamous corralito — and overnight, savings vanished.
Inflation exploded, jobs evaporated, and riots tore through Buenos Aires. GDP cratered, and the middle class became beggars. In the chaos, people sold anything to eat: furniture, TVs, grandma’s jewelry. Especially the jewelry.
Here’s where it gets interesting. On the streets and in black markets, 10-karat gold rings—41.7% pure, the kind you’d scoff at in a stable economy would sell at the same price as 18-carat gold.
A mother might trade a handful for a sack of rice, a father for a tank of gas to flee. Desperation doesn’t haggle over karats.
He told me that they would use simple testing kits like a magnet, or (gold sinks) or the acid test. But mostly they cared about weight.
Smugglers and traders scooped up those rings by the bagful, paying pennies per gram, then flipped them across borders or melted them down because gold is gold, period. Official prices hovered at $250–$300 an ounce globally, but during Argentina’s panic, it was selling much cheaper.
But it was better than nothing. The currency was worthless, and the ATMs no longer worked. If you wanted to get your family out of the country – a similar scenario happened more recently in Venezuela and Syria – you need a currency that will transfer into food and transportation.
Bitcoin is great for moving fortunes across borders, but it is unlikely to buy a burrito on the side of the road.
Fast forward to 2025. The U.S. isn’t Argentina — yet. But cracks are showing: debt’s ballooning, markets wobble, and spring’s optimism feels like a distraction. If it hits the fan here, the same rules apply.
How do you play it? Keep cash on hand—USD or Euros, not digital promises. Buy some cheap gold rings. Scout the exits: Canada, Mexico, wherever borders stay porous. Watch for the signs—bank runs, gas lines, supply chain disruptions.
When the herd panics, you move. Argentina’s lesson isn’t just history — it’s a warning.
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer
Outsider Club
You Might Also Like:
SILVER!:
https://www.outsiderclub.com/silver-breaks-out-3/
