Well, folks, the ADP National Employment Report just dropped a bombshell this morning, and it’s got the doom-and-gloom crowd running for cover. Private-sector payrolls added a whopping 155,000 jobs in March, blowing past the pundits’ 120,000-job guestimate.
This isn’t a government-manipulated number—it’s hard data from over 25 million paychecks, courtesy of ADP Research and Stanford’s brain trust.
After February’s 84,000 (revised up from 77,000), this is a haymaker to the jaw of anyone betting on a crumbling economy. The labor market’s alive and kicking.
The Nitty-Gritty
March’s numbers are in contrast to the slowdown narrative. We’re talking gains across the board—small shops, big corporations, you name it. Manufacturing was up 21,000 jobs. It would seem that Trump's tariffs are working.
Here are the Jobs by Industry:
January kicked off 2025 with 183,000 jobs, February stumbled, and now March is back swinging. It’s a rollercoaster, sure, but the trend says employers aren’t done yet.
Furthermore, wages were steady. Job-stayers saw 4.7% year-over-year pay bumps the same as January and February. There is no runaway inflation in these numbers.
The point is, companies are hiring without breaking the bank on raises. That’s a sweet spot for profits though a headache for rate-cut cheerleaders.
Markets, Trump, and the Fed
This ADP beat juiced the markets this morning. There was green across the board. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.44%, treasury yields popped, and gold was up to $3,165 an ounce.
The downside is that the Fed can hold off on cutting rates.
Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report needs to back this up—analysts peg it at 140,000, down from February’s 151,000. If BLS confirms ADP’s growth numbers, there won’t be a rate cut until September at the earliest.
Trumps Tarrifs
In other news, Trump’s tariff news drops today at 4 p.m. ET. Everyone’s fretting about trade wars tanking manufacturing or jacking up prices. But Vietnam already said it would drop tariffs on U.S. goods, and Canada said they would cut tariffs if the U.S. cut tariffs.
Businesses don’t seem to care—they’re hiring anyway. ADP’s Nela Richardson said: “Policy uncertainty, grumpy consumers—whatever. March was a win for employers, big and small.” Tariffs might sting later, but not today.
ADP vs. BLS: The Real Deal
That said, ADP’s a sneak peek at the real numbers. It’s private-sector only—no bureaucrats—and leans on its payroll clients, not BLS’s big survey net. January showed the gap: ADP claimed 183,000 while BLS showed 111,000 private jobs.
They don’t always sync, but ADP gives a nice heads-up. Friday’s NFP will tell the whole story.
What this means is that people will continue to have money. Consumer stocks, which have been hit hard over the past month, are back on the table. I like the cruise lines. They are undervalued, benefit from low oil prices, and have booked trips far in advance.
Keep a weather eye on Friday’s NFP data. If it supports the ADP it could give another leg up to the market in general.
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer
Outsider Club
You may also like SILVER!:
