2024 in Review

It’s a hazy 72 degrees here on the southern Georgia coast today. I’m writing from my outside office, with its lovely view of high tide on Burrell Creek then across the marsh and the St. Marys River to the pine forest around Yulee, Florida.

We’ve had a couple late-night frosts already, there will be a couple more. But ultimately, I won’t need both hands to tally the number of days that I need a coat to take Maxie to the dog park.

And I have to check the calendar to know it’s almost Christmas and 2024 is just about done.

It’s Predictions Week here at Outsider Club. Over the next couple of days, Hammer and I will share our 2025 Predictions with you. And you don’t want to miss what we have to say – of course, every new year brings plenty of uncertainty and potential risks, but the range of outcomes for 2025 seems very wide…

Will resurgent inflation force the Fed to hike interest rates? Can the Magnificant 7 lead the stock market to yet another +20% annual gain? Is China headed for a Japan-style deflationary spiral and 20-year bear market? Gold or Bitcoin?

Why should you listen to us? Track record. You’re simply not going to find more accurate forecasts and actionable insights than what Hammer and I bring you.

The proof of the pudding, they say, is in the tasting…

The #1 Most Accurate Forecasts

The herd mentality amongst Wall Street types was on full display coming into 2024. Most relied on the standard CYA “10% rally” forecast to keep them employed and in the bonus pool. (A shoutout to strategist Michael Wilson for having the courage to buck the trend and advise Morgan Stanley clients that stocks would do badly in 2024. Dead wrong, but at least he stuck to his guns!)

Not us. We absolutely nailed 2024. On December 20, 2023, I wrote:

I estimate the high for the S&P 500 in 2024 to be between 5,865 and 6,120.

My forecast was by far the most bullish. And it was spot on: the 2024 high for the S&P 500 is 6099.97 – so far. I missed by 20 points.

I expect West Texas Crude to trade between $65 and $80 in 2024.

Hammer and I agreed on this one. Oil prices (and oil stocks) did a whole lot of nothing. Though, my March recommendation of Argentina’s YPF (NYSE: YPF) at $20 is up 124%.

Lower fuel costs, however, will immediately boost Carnival’s [Cruise Lines (NYSE: CCL)] bottom line. It’s one of my favorite stocks for 2024

Yeah ok, Carnival’s 59% gain in 2024 is maybe a little underwhelming. But it was a high-conviction call and it doubled the performance of the S&P 500. That’s a win.

Bitcoin will hit all-time highs

Hammer and I don’t discuss our Predictions ahead of publishing. But we hash out trade ideas all the time. So probably no surprise we were both wildly bullish on Bitcoin coming into 2024. Wait till you see what we have to say about Bitcoin for 2025!

Chinese stocks and economy sink…Avoid Chinese stocks. Buy U.S.-centric stocks (and countries/stocks in the American Circle of Trust).

I added: I have concerns about U.S. companies that do a lot of business in China. Like, GM (NYSE: GM) has half of its production capacity in China. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) gets nearly half its revenue from China. All of Starbucks (NYSE: SBUX) expected growth comes from its China expansion plans….

China is mired in deflation, GM took a $5 billion charge for its failing China business, and Starbucks is considering selling a big chink of its Chinese company, but Elon Musk has managed to find some favor by sucking up to President Xi – for now. Two out of three ain’t bad.

After Tesla, Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is the EV stock to own for 2024 and beyond.

Rivian shares were down 25% in 2024, but the company proved its business model can reach profitability. Tesla started the year at $244 and is hitting $471 today. Chalk ‘em up!

I expect Amazon shares to double in 2024

A move from $144 to $233 in 2024 is pretty darn good, but – it isn’t a double. So I beg your forgiveness for my failure with Amazon…

And speaking of failure…

Intel earnings will double over the next 12 months, and so will the stock price

I’ll never shy away from a bad call. It’s my firm belief that Outsider Club readers deserve nothing less than 100% transparency. Still, if it’s all the same to you, I’d rather forget this tragic Intel episode ever happened…

Thanks. Also, don’t miss the lesson here. Technology is hard enough, but when a company misses a cycle in tech, catching up is even harder. Think Nokia, Blackberry, Motorola, Cisco, and now Intel…

Stay Tuned!

If you missed Hammer’s Predictions review yesterday, you can read it here. Between us, we had Outsider Club readers very well positioned for all of 2024. Over the next couple of days, we’ll deliver what we see ahead for 2025. Don’t miss it!

And if you want a little preview, here’s one of our favorite AI Power stocks for next year!

Cheers,

Briton Ryle
Chief Investment Strategist
Outsider Club

X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/BritonRyle

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